Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 35.928036 39.025412 42.451415 46.559609 51.403886 57.002624 64.067210
2025-08-10 31.539373 35.604169 40.426898 46.702331 54.866497 65.470410 80.945522
2025-08-17 28.365168 32.727988 38.119712 45.495707 55.726921 70.153661 93.732262
2025-08-24 26.031390 30.502646 36.192630 44.271871 56.050313 73.818548 105.942910
2025-08-31 25.274569 30.142239 36.550406 46.063432 60.819609 85.156762 136.093292
2025-09-07 23.714086 28.561371 35.066524 44.976991 60.936750 88.800151 153.411228
2025-09-14 22.448576 27.267445 33.843215 44.093411 61.171650 92.636242 173.651339
2025-09-21 21.016483 25.648218 32.027691 42.101567 59.218763 91.781839 181.384598
2025-09-28 20.241547 24.887421 31.382069 41.854884 60.235012 97.158979 211.844857
2025-10-05 20.303368 25.292117 32.451923 44.443841 66.805859 116.872779 322.480477
2025-10-12 19.557797 24.494037 31.655794 43.844274 67.180352 122.105290 384.533424
2025-10-19 19.179067 24.203721 31.608255 44.506945 70.194704 135.569973 548.005910
2025-10-26 18.556259 23.642741 31.287519 45.010952 73.815110 155.786793 1041.654139
2025-11-02 17.869152 22.961360 30.751035 45.124674 76.838148 178.128971 3071.980219
2025-11-09 17.019849 21.975190 29.632027 43.987234 76.616063 188.798495 15489.957801
2025-11-16 16.252074 21.067917 28.572048 42.831791 76.086943 198.347710 NaN
2025-11-23 16.060441 21.031675 28.946257 44.522778 83.452008 258.093865 NaN
2025-11-30 15.430301 20.273060 28.037453 43.497658 83.067376 274.578137 NaN
2025-12-07 14.881684 19.616435 27.261159 42.663198 83.059572 295.412116 NaN
2025-12-14 14.205989 18.730522 26.039816 40.779592 79.513573 284.503764 NaN
2025-12-21 13.833520 18.312658 25.611302 40.546071 81.028381 320.973915 NaN
2025-12-28 13.881332 18.567750 26.378166 42.994228 92.090023 516.624422 NaN
2026-01-04 13.498731 18.104935 25.827240 42.427789 92.670585 586.298578 NaN